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For any copyright, please send me a message. The Central Bank of Ireland has forecast that a new no-deal scenario, the country’s economy will shrink by 4.9 percent by 2028. The study forecast that unemployment would also surge by more than 1.6 percent if the UK and EU fail to strike a free-trade agreement before the end of the Brexit transition period. Its figures are equivalent to an £8billion hit to the Irish economy, based on 2018 data, and 90,000 fewer jobs than if the UK remained an EU member. Economists Thomas Conefrey and Graeme Walsh wrote: “The 11-month time-frame to conclude an EU-UK FTA is ambitious when benchmarked between countries and trading blocs in the past.” In another shock warning, the pair predict that even if a deal is reached before December 2020, Irish output would slump by around 3.5 percent in the long run. “In each scenario the impact of Brexit is initially transmitted to the Irish economy via the traded sector,” they added. “The reduction in traded sector output would arise due to the fall in demand for Irish exports.” Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, today warned Boris Johnson’s refusal to extend the transition period, which sees the UK remain a member of the bloc’s single market and customs union, could result in significant trade barriers by 2021. The Frenchman told MEPs: "If we fail to reach an agreement by December 31, on trade. The status quo will not remain, since on that day, as decided by the British Prime Minister, the United Kingdom will leave the customs union and the single market, and go back to WTO terms." He added: "In other words, above and beyond the checks that we'll have to carry out on all products from the United Kingdom as a result of Brexit, just as we carry out checks on all third countries coming into the single market. We do so to protect our consumers and firms, above and beyond, those checks will need to come what may. "In those circumstances, if we fail to reach an agreement, there will be quotas and tariffs on all British products. That's the result if we fail to reach that agreement within the constraints of the time limits imposed by the British Prime Minister." Ireland heavily relies on Britain for its trade connections with the rest of Europe, through the so-called “land bridge”. Any disruption because of checks could see Irish businesses lose out to competitors elsewhere on the Continent. Before the signing of the UK’s EU Withdrawal Agreement, there were significant warnings the Irish beef industry would be “wiped out” in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Trade taxes, which could be as high as 53 percent, would mean Irish beef would be too expensive for British consumers. UK shops would be expected to switch their purchasing focus to ch
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